Is the Downeast bubble shrinking ?

Discussion in 'Downeast Boat General Discussion' started by yanmar, Jul 4, 2018.

  1. yanmar

    yanmar Captain

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    I see a lot of overpriced lobsters and downeasts are still for sale and have been for a while . Some seem to be dropping in price and some stubborn and waiting to get what they think they are worth .
     
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  2. Old Mud

    Old Mud Captain

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    Or What they think they can get !! Problem i see is everyone thinks "His is worth more" For whatever reason. It may even be true in some cases but for the most part "It's all about the money".
     
  3. jsakovits

    jsakovits Senior Member

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    So not sure it is dropping at this point but would suggest that it is not getting any bigger. There are a number of boats that should have sold but have now been on the market for over 12 months.
     
    Last edited: Jul 4, 2018
  4. greg

    greg Captain

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    There will always be unrealistic sellers, as well as buyers. But as long as they can financially keep up the charade that they deserve more than what buyers are offering, the boats will remain on the market.

    It's no different with DE's than with CC's or sprortfisherman's.

    A sale always requires a willing buyer and seller.

    Boats staying on the market don't define the market. Boats sold do.

    It is easier to exaggerate in low volume markets like DE's.

    The only boat I am concerned about is mine. And it isn't for sale; well, it's always for sale, for the right price. ;)
     
    greg,
  5. Diesel Jerry

    Diesel Jerry Captain

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    I don’t believe in the bubble. Yes, there are some over priced boats Downeast boats out there but you could say the same for any type of boat.
    I think the “bubble” was too many people trying to compare the value of X Downeast boat to the similar X mass produced boat. Which is completely unfair, and not the way to value any boat. Of coarse the DE wil cost more...it is custom built.
     
  6. Keelboater

    Keelboater Captain

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    It's all about dollars per pound of the complete boat if you want to make direct cost comparisons between a D.E. and another type of boat. It's the only data point that all boats have in common. I'm not saying it's right or wrong, just saying it is what it is. One boat might have two motors but half the fiberglass. One might have tons of accessories while the other is a plain Jane........etc. Custom or not does not matter in this regard.
     
  7. Diesel Jerry

    Diesel Jerry Captain

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    I think it does though due to the building process. If SW boatworks used the same engine, at the same location in every 38 YB, and the same pre molded Saloon with the same molded bunks and head. The same water heater and fixtures, the same, the same, the same (get were I am going) the cost of building would be a lot cheaper. Therefore when the owner wanted sell it would be a lot cheaper than the 38YB that the owner chooses the layout, engine so on and so forth. So I believe what people are preceiving as a bubble is the cost of having a custom boat built.
     
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  8. jsakovits

    jsakovits Senior Member

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    I think folks are overthinking this. If per sue the average 35’ duffy in a given condition was selling for $150 k one year and the same boat the next year is $200k one would say that is a significant increase. If after a few years they continue to sell for $200k that is now the new norm and ups or downs will be based on the new baseline
     
  9. Eastporter

    Eastporter Captain

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    Cars depreciate as soon as you drive off the lot. Boats that are mass produced are similar in their depreciation. Custom boats (DE) as already stated, have a 3 year window at some places to get a slot to build. This wait time plays a role in the supply and demand, and creates a deficit in the marketplace (supply is limited by production). As I stated before in a different post, the lobster prices are driving the DE bubble. Unfortunately, the global market (i.e. China) will not be buying the lobsters from the US with the 25% tariff, and you will see a flood of lobsters on the market. This will create a surplus and the price of lobsters will go down drastically- unless the lobstermen create quotas to LIMIT the amount of lobsters caught to enter the market. If you are familiar with the dairy industry, the milk prices actually go down when farmers produce more milk (due to surplus in the market). That is why dairy farmers created their own co-ops and limits on production to stabilize the production/prices. Boat prices in the DE world is directly related to commercial purchases, with recreational boaters buying a fraction of the boats on new and used markets. As new boats are being constructed, the used boat market will heat up due to the demand for bigger DE boats for more traps. If this tariff does kill the global market for lobsters/tuna as I predict you will see fishermen downsizing instead of upsizing their operations. This will cause a correction in the DE boat marketplace, and you will see prices go down.
     
    Last edited: Jul 14, 2018 at 7:22 AM
  10. Frank Grimes

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    lobster prices and cheap credit. I think there might be some nervous loan officers in a few coastal Maine communities.

    There is a spectrum. The more custom a boat gets the less likely it's gonna move. That immaculate 46' Wesmac finished on Long Island as a SF a few years back, the blue twin engine 46' Duffy, the Hubris Wesmac.....they sat for years before they moved and at various discounts to initial ask. Therefore there is a discrepancy between cost to purchase (build) and market value that is verrrrry hard for some people reconcile.

    There is a bubble in toy ownership in general. A lot of it (but not all) fueled by cheap credit. However.........$350K for a new 31' Regulator with twin Yamaha 300s? Get. The. Fuck. Out. I'd be hard pressed to pay $350K for a new 31' Duffy finished off nicely.....but, if somebody will, that's all that matters. Ass for every seat. I guess my ass will be sitting on land
     
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  11. willbfishin

    willbfishin Senior Member

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    If the want to eat "robsta"
    They will pay the tarrif
    Remember lobster is not a commodity product like milk, it's a Luxury only the elite in china can afford to begin with so a 25 percent tarrif on a 10 dollar lobster is not going to have a big impact.
    Dont believe the hype
     
  12. Eastporter

    Eastporter Captain

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    I remember a few years back (or a decade ago) getting lobsters at $3.99 lb. at Market Basket- clearly this is a marketing ploy to sell other goods at the store. But... I don't think Market Basket was losing money on the lobsters just to make money on the butter and corn if you know what I mean. If they are selling for $4 a lb. to a customer at Market Basket, how much does the fisherman get- $2 a lb.? If lobsters are going for those prices instead of $9+ a lb. now- you will see a correction. Canada is also imposing tariffs- bait may be an issue too.
     
    Last edited: Jul 12, 2018
  13. Diesel Jerry

    Diesel Jerry Captain

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    Given I am not as old as some, but in just my life time I have seen the lobstering industry not only change drastically, but also go through many highs and lows. I was 5 and watched my father loose his boat, and lobster out of a skiff. He fished wooden traps out when I first started going sternman with him when I was 6. Since then I watch the shift from wooden boats to glass. I remember 20 being fast and 36 being big. Nobody we knew of were doing overnight trips back then. I remember strikes and bait shortages. Builders would slow down and prices will change, but the builders seem to have more recreational builds than they ever did so that helps them out.
     
  14. Fishonnelsons

    Fishonnelsons Captain

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    Whatever happened to that 46 twin engine Duffy? Sold, what price etc? If I remember correctly she was really nice and the price was up over $600?
     
  15. Blitzen

    Blitzen Captain

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    It sold.
     
  16. WoundUpMarine

    WoundUpMarine Captain

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    Does anyone know where Hubris went? Just curious if it'll be seen around anymore.
     
  17. Freshwater

    Freshwater Senior Member

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    Just saw a pick of hubris on IG with a pyramid of cat oil in front of it

    Tony
     
  18. Blitzen

    Blitzen Captain

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    That was of the new Viking not the Wesmac.
     
  19. Tuna Pursuit

    Tuna Pursuit Captain

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    I believe it's deflating slowly
     

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